Dear Nokidding,nokidding wrote: ↑Sat Feb 06, 2021 9:39 am Could the chance of a satellite meeting any random object in LEO be approximated as a volumetric ratio? ie vol of satellite / (vol of outer orbit sphere - inner orbit sphere}. This figure would then be multiplied by the number of random objects. The chance of being in in wrong place at wrong time would be very small, but obviously this changes if you are in a shipping lane.
I believe we have, over the years, amply demonstrated (in numerous ways) in this forum's discussion threads that there are no man-made satellites circling our planet.
However, just to play with the idea - and as a fun computational exercise - it would be interesting to calculate the probabilities of a sphere with a radius of only about 6500km (the approximate radius of Earth + its surrounding atmosphere) being struck by, say, 9 billion projectiles every year - i.e. the estimated number of meteorids entering our atmosphere annually. One would also have to take into account that all these meteroids travel at a PERPENDICULAR angle vis-à-vis the supposed trajectories of the alleged 20,000 or so man-made satellites circling around Earth in all directions (and at various hypersonic velocities).
Here's where one may calculate the surface area of a sphere:
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculat ... sphere.php
Now, keep in mind that - as far as I know - no satellites are known to have been downed by a meteorid / or any space debris.
Any math-geeks out there who'd take up the challenge to calculate the odds / probabilities of ZERO such incidents occuring over, say, the last 20 years?