*
WHAT COULD THE "I$$" BE?
I have been giving this question some more thought lately. I know, the following may slightly contradict some of my earlier ISS musings here, but I'm sure you will appreciate that this isn't an easy issue to wrap one's head around. For the sake of (reasoned / no-nonsense / reality-checked) discussion, let me just postulate that the "I$$" is perhaps nothing but a solar-powered drone, somewhat similar to this "SOLAR EAGLE 650" - which DARPA claims to be "under development". Of course, this would mean that it travels at far, far lower speeds and altitudes (than the 28.000 km/h - and 400 km of altitude) claimed for the ISS - and at CONSTANTLY DIVERSE / FLUCTUATING altitudes and paths. In order to support this contention, I will submit a few simple calculations based on my own observations of the alleged "International Space Station" - as it passes above my house in Frascati, on the outskirts of Rome (I have now been able to witness more than a dozen, cloudless fly-overs in the last year or so, having subscribed to NASA's "Spot the Station e-mail alert service").
"One of the largest solar powered drones, known as ‘SolarEagle 650’ is under development at Boeing Phantom Works, under DARPA’s $89 million Vulture II program." http://defense-update.com/20130813_sola ... lites.html
The Odysseus drone (by Boeing) :
"Powered only by the sun, Odysseus is an ultra-long endurance, high-altitude platform built for groundbreaking persistence. Utilizing advanced solar cells and built with lightweight materials, Odysseus can effectively fly indefinitely all powered by clean, renewable energy."
To be sure, smaller such solar-drones (like the 'HALE'), capable of staying aloft for several years, may well already exist:
"This ultra high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) platform would have been capable of flying missions lasting between three months to five years. According to DARPA’s original plan, this drone’s 400-foot span wings would carry solar panel arrays that will be able to sustain the drone aloft in the stratosphere for at least five years. The solar-electric-powered aircraft was designed to cruise at altitudes above 60,000 feet at a speed of 70 to 80 knots while performing communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions."
Now, the "ISS" that I have seen on several occasions invariably appears as a bright, fixed (i.e. non-flashing - unlike commercial airplanes'
navigation lights) white/yellowish light traveling across my skyline (always on varying paths). To be sure, it could be easily be mistaken (by a casual onlooker) for an airplane flying at roughly standard cruise altitude - albeit at seemingly slower speed than commercial airplanes. But as we will see, the issue of apparent speed of the "ISS" is quite a mystery / head-scratcher in itself. For instance, back in December 28, 2013, it took all of 6 minutes for the ISS to cross my skyline, from NorthWest to EastSouthEast. Here's NASA's own description of that passage over Rome - as announced by their "Spot the Station" alert that I received in my e-mail inbox earlier that day:
Time: Sat Dec 28 5:26 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 74 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
So let's see:
IF the "ISS" is nothing but a solar-powered drone traveling at a leisurely 80 knots (150km/h), would this make any sense - if we try and compute this - as seen from my visual perspective, from my house in Frascati? Well, indeed it does. A simple calculation tells us that, if the "Thing" travels at 150km/h, it will cover 15 km in
6 minutes. Now, in this Google Map illustration, here's what
x-------15km-------> 'means to me', as a visual observer from my vantage point. (Please know that I can only just see, on a clear night, the navigation lights of commercial planes as they come in from North/ North-West to land in
Ciampino airport. Also, please know that the village of Rocca Priora is just beyond my line of sight):
Instead, NASA wants me to believe that, when I observe the "ISS" flying over my house (at a
minimum distance of about 400km - as it passes right overhead !), I am actually witnessing with my own eyes the "Thing's" voyage between Paris (France) and Alexandria (Egypt):
http://www.worldatlas.com/travelaids/fl ... stance.htm
In fact, the "ISS" is claimed to be traveling / orbiting at a speed of 28.000 km/h, which means that it would cover about 2800 km in
6 minutes. All this without any need for fuel or any such mundane / earthly amenities - because the "thing" was launched fast enough out in space back in 1998. The "ISS", we are told, just continues flying at hypersonic speeds around our 12000km-diameter-Earth (at about 400km of altitude), day after day after day...
"The International Space Station (ISS) is a space station, or a habitable artificial satellite, in low Earth orbit. It is a modular structure whose first component was launched in 1998. Now the largest artificial body in orbit, it can often be seen at the appropriate time with the naked eye from Earth. (...) The ISS maintains an orbit with an altitude of between 330 km and 435 km by means of reboost manoeuvres using the engines of the Zvezda module or visiting spacecraft. It completes 15.51 orbits per day." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internatio ... ce_Station
Now, for those who may be interested in the "Thing's" bizarre 'orbit paths' - and speeds - here's the list of the "ISS" passages over Rome - in 2014:
SPOT THE STATION:
2014
Time: Mon Aug 18 9:47 PM, Visible: 2 min, Max Height: 50 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Thu Aug 07 8:59 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 56 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Tue Aug 05 9:01 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 54 degrees, Appears: SW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Mon Aug 04 9:49 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 83 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Mon Aug 04 3:32 AM, Visible: 5 min, Max Height: 46 degrees, Appears: NNW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Sun Aug 03 10:38 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 50 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Sun Aug 03 4:19 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 75 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Sat Aug 02 5:08 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 62 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SE
Time: Mon Jul 21 3:37 AM, Visible: 2 min, Max Height: 85 degrees, Appears: ESE, Disappears: ENE
Time: Sun Jul 20 4:24 AM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 57 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NNE
Time: Fri Jul 18 4:25 AM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 52 degrees, Appears: SSW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Thu Jul 17 5:11 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 87 degrees, Appears: SW, Disappears: NE
Time: Sat Jun 21 9:33 PM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 61 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SE
Time: Thu Jun 19 9:35 PM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 51 degrees, Appears: NNW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Wed Jun 18 10:23 PM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 86 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Tue Jun 17 11:11 PM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 51 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: WSW
Time: Sun Jun 15 11:14 PM, Visible: 2 min, Max Height: 57 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Sat Jun 07 3:19 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 64 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SSE
Time: Thu Jun 05 9:39 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 78 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Thu Jun 05 3:21 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 49 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Wed Jun 04 10:28 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 47 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Wed Jun 04 4:09 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 81 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Tue Jun 03 4:58 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 57 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SE
Time: Mon Jun 02 10:29 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 67 degrees, Appears: SW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Sun Jun 01 4:59 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 54 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Sun May 25 2:40 AM, Visible: 1 min, Max Height: 43 degrees, Appears: NNE, Disappears: NE
Time: Thu May 22 3:29 AM, Visible: 2 min, Max Height: 85 degrees, Appears: NNE, Disappears: NE
Time: Wed May 21 4:16 AM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 51 degrees, Appears: W, Disappears: NNE
Time: Mon May 19 4:17 AM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 60 degrees, Appears: SSW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Sun May 18 5:04 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 77 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Wed Apr 23 8:29 PM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 75 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Tue Apr 22 9:18 PM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 63 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SSE
Time: Sun Apr 20 9:18 PM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 49 degrees, Appears: NNW, Disappears: E
Time: Sat Apr 19 10:06 PM, Visible: 1 min, Max Height: 55 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: NW
Time: Wed Apr 09 8:27 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 61 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Mon Apr 07 8:28 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 48 degrees, Appears: SW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Sun Apr 06 9:17 PM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 87 degrees, Appears: SW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Wed Apr 02 4:41 AM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 42 degrees, Appears: ENE, Disappears: ESE
Time: Tue Apr 01 5:27 AM, Visible: 5 min, Max Height: 77 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE *
Time: Mon Mar 31 6:15 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 61 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SE
Time: Sat Mar 29 5:16 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 51 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Tue Mar 18 4:39 AM, Visible: 2 min, Max Height: 50 degrees, Appears: NNW, Disappears: NE
Time: Sun Mar 16 4:40 AM, Visible: 2 min, Max Height: 63 degrees, Appears: SSE, Disappears: ENE
Time: Sat Mar 15 5:27 AM, Visible: 5 min, Max Height: 74 degrees, Appears: WSW, Disappears: NE
Time: Thu Mar 13 5:28 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 40 degrees, Appears: SSW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Tue Feb 25 6:43 PM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 48 degrees, Appears: W, Disappears: SE
Time: Sun Feb 23 6:42 PM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 62 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Sat Feb 22 7:32 PM, Visible: 2 min, Max Height: 76 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SSW
Time: Mon Feb 10 5:59 PM, Visible: 5 min, Max Height: 70 degrees, Appears: SW, Disappears: ENE
Time: Tue Jan 28 5:21 AM, Visible: 1 min, Max Height: 48 degrees, Appears: E, Disappears: ESE
Time: Mon Jan 27 6:07 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 71 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SE
Time: Sun Jan 26 6:53 AM, Visible: 6 min, Max Height: 40 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: SSE
Time: Sat Jan 25 6:07 AM, Visible: 3 min, Max Height: 44 degrees, Appears: NNW, Disappears: E
Time: Fri Jan 24 6:53 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 71 degrees, Appears: NW, Disappears: ESE
Time: Mon Jan 13 6:06 AM, Visible: 4 min, Max Height: 43 degrees, Appears: WNW, Disappears: NE
Just ask yourself this question: WHY would the ISS at times be visible (from my vantage point in Rome) for 1 minute only - and at other times for as many as 6 minutes - if the "Thing" is constantly orbiting at about 330 / 410km of altitude, as claimed by NASA ?
For now, I will leave it up to you, dear reader - to reach your own conclusions. However - and as a first mind exercise, if you live on a hillside overlooking a big city (like myself), try and look out of your window and observe the spotlights of a distant football stadium (or the like), perhaps 20km away. Imagine now these lights being
twenty times (20kmX20=400km) further away. Do you think you would be able to see them?